Top 10 Safest Overage Players in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft
That being said, most overage players do not become meaningful NHL players, while sometimes diamonds in the rough like Tanner Pearson or David Perron can be found.
Historically, the most successful overage player are those that were high scorers but were generally passed over due to size, or players who were playing in a tier 2 junior league before making the jump in their DY+1.
With all this in mind, lets take a look at this years most likely Overage success stories.
Cohort Criteria: Within 2 inches of height and +/- 4 Cumulative NHLE scoring for Draft Years seasons up to and including the 2015. EX: A player who was in DY +2 for the 14-15 season, will be compared based on Cumulative NHLE’s for their DRAFT YEAR, DRAFT YEAR +1, and DRAFT YEAR +2, provided the data is available.
10. Michael Fora
Cohort size: 238
NA rank: 205
NHL %: 21%
Third Pair/Depth %: 5%
Top Four %: 16%
Top Pair %: 7%
Elite %:1%
Michael Fora is a single season overage player (2014 was his draft year) who had decent NHLE production after going undrafted. 50 of his 238 Cohort’s became NHL players, with the majority of them becoming 2nd pairing or better defenders (based on scoring alone.). The 6’2″ defender has adequate size, and with a 21% success rate presents a very PLUS value pick for his CSS rank of 205. His highest historical NHL comparable is Erik Karlsson.
9. Jiri Fronk
Cohort: 303
NA Rank: 151
NHL %: 24%
Bottom Six %: 16%
Third Line: 14%
Top Six %: 7%
Top line %: 3%
Elite %:1%
Jiri Fronk has already been passed over 3 times prior to this draft year. That being said, he still represents a 24% chance of NHL success based on his latest scoring and moderate size (6’2″). This is great value for a player ranked at 151 by CSS and likely to go outside of the top 4 rounds.
The most likely individual level of success for the big right winger was as a 4th line player (9%) though he had similar chances of success (8%) in a third line role. Fronk holds an outside chance (2%) at becoming an elite comparable. His highest historical comparable player is James Neal.
8. Dryden Hunt
Cohort: 297
NA rank: 111
NHL %: 24%
Bottom Six: 12%
Third line: 16%
Top six: 1%
First line: 5%
Elite %: 2%
Dryden Hunt is a 6’0″ Left winger ranked at number 111 by CSS. At 199 lbs he’s essentially a pro-ready build, and his 24% success rate is quite good for his projected pick location of 4th round plus. He is most likely a 4th line player (7%) though he shows a fairly even distribution (4% chance of 1st line, 5% chance of 2nd line, 5% chance of third line, 7% chance of fourth line) with an outside shot at elite upside (2%).
Alexander Semin is the highest scoring comparable player to Dryden Hunt.
7. Sebastian Aho (DEFENDER)
Cohort: 24
EUrank: 13
NHL %: 25%
Third Pair: 25%
Top 4: 21%
First pair: 13%
Elite %: 0%
Sebastian Aho is the highest ranked player on our list (13 of all Euro’s by CSS). The overage defender put together an impressive season and has pulled a cohort success rate of 25%. While decent for an overage player, his high ranking leaves some questions as to whether he truly provides exceptional value in the first 3 rounds of the draft. That being said, 13% of his cohort became first pairing scoring Dmen, the highest high-end success rate of this list.
Mark Streit was his highest scoring NHL comparable.
6. Brett Seney
Cohort: 78
NA rank: 198
NHL %: 26%
Bottom six: 13%
Third line: 15%
Top six: 12%
First line: 3%
Elite %: 1%
The 5’9″ Left Winger, Brett Seney, marks the start of a three way tie of overage forwards at 26%. The diminutive scorer was passed over his first year (2014) and holds a depth CSS rank of 198 but represents immense value for a 6th-7th round pick, and would not be out of place in the 3rd-5th rounds either.
His most likely outcomes are as a second line scorer (9%) or as 4th line utility forward (9%). Joe Pavelski is his highest scoring NHL Comparable.
5. Luke Phil
Cohort: 77
NA rank: 172
NHL %: 26 %
Bottom six: 14%
Third line: 17%
Top six: 10%
First line: 4%
Elite %: 3%
Luke Phil is a 5’9″ center who pulled a 26% chance of NHL success while being ranked 172 overall by CSS. The second of the three-way tie, Phil also represent great value for a pick anywhere in the back half of the draft. His most likely level of success is as a 4th line player (8%) though he has a combined 12% chance of being a useful middle six player as well.
Interestingly he ties for the highest chance of elite success at 3%. As with Seney, Joe Pavelski is his highest scoring comparable.
4. Richard Bukarts
Cohort:34
NA rank: UN-RANKED
NHL %: 26 %
Bottom six: 14%
Third line: 15%
Top six: 12%
First line: 13%
Elite %: 0%
The first un-ranked player to crack our lists, Richard Bukarts tops off the 3-way tie for success at 26%.
He is small. REALLY SMALL. At 5’9″ it’s no wonder why he hasn’t been ranked. That being said, 26% chance flyer in the 7th round is better then any team can regularly hope for. Furthermore, he has a 12% chance of being a top six player- nothing to sniff at outside the first 3 rounds of a regular draft.
His highest NHL scoring comparable was Ryan Callahan.
3. Tim McGauley
Cohort: 284
NA rank: 165
NHL %: 30 %
Bottom six: 18%
Third line: 21%
Top six: 12%
First line: 6%
Elite %: 2%
6′ Center Tim McGauley pulled an impressive 30% success rate in a very large cohort. This is especially impressive given his modest ranking of 165 by CSS- expected to go in the last three rounds of the draft, if at all.
Tim’s 30% success rate would be at home in the back of the 2nd round, and as double-overage player, McGauley could step on to a teams AHL roster this fall if he so chose.
His 12% chance of top six success shows he has some decent upside, while his 18% chance of bottom six success shows he’s quite “safe” in the traditional sense. His highest scoring NHL Comparable was Alexander Semin.
2. Vladimir Tkachev
Cohort: 134
NA rank: 159
NHL %: 33%
Bottom six: 16%
Third line: 23%
Top six: 16%
First line: 9%
Elite %: 3%
Most draft fans will be familiar with Vladimir Tkachev after he received an illegal contract offer last fall from the Edmonton Oilers. The Russian winger had another impressive scoring season and is currently projecting at a 33% likelihood of success. Though CSS has him ranked as a late pick, it should be no surprise if the Oilers decide to draft him within the first 4 rounds.
Tkachev’s 16% top six upside is impressive, and his 9% chance of becoming a first line talent even more so, though it should be noted, his most common individual level of success was as a 4th line player (8%). Joe Pavelski was his highest comparable.
1. Andrew Mangiapane
Cohort: 99
NA rank: 85
NHL %: 37 %
Bottom six: 13%
Third line: 32%
Top six: 24%
First line: 13%
Elite %: 3%
And the number 1 spot for an overage player goes to Andrew Mangiapane. Another undersized scorer, Mangiapane had a very successful DY+1 season after a relatively unremarkable performance in his original draft year. His 37% success rate is very impressive for a player ranked outside of the top 50 (for example, #5 ranked Lawson Crouse holds a similar statistical projection).
His most likely level of success was as a 2nd line player (11%) though he has very good first line upside as well (10%). In short, getting a player with 1/4 chance of being at minimum a top 6 performer is great value, even in the second round.
It will remain to be seen as to whether he can maintain his production, or if GM’s were right in passing him over the first time around.
Honorable Mentions:
3 Players just missed the cut off for our top 10 list.
Alexandre Goulet is a 6′, 195 lbs Overage Center ranked 166 by CSS yet holds a 19% chance of NHL success.
Next is the very large double overage Mark Simpson who is a 6’5″ center ranked 160 by CSS. Despite his NHL success rate (19%) Simpson’s counting stats do leave some questions about his ultimate upside, and is likely a middle 6 player even under the best of circumstances.
Pius Suter is one of the highest ranked skaters on this list but just missed the top 10. The 5’11” center is small but still holds a 20% chance of success. Ranked at 74 in NA by CSS, he wouldn’t be a bad pick in the third round, but does not represent the value most players on this list show.
Conclusions:
The common thread for the most successful overage players appears to be small(ish) players who continued scoring or broke out after their first season. Not a single skater in the top 5 was over 6 feet tall, though many represent immensely high value given their projected draft location.
Teams could potentially do very well to mine overage player’s in the last two rounds of the draft, to not only strengthen their farm teams immediately, but to gain a considerable advantage verse the traditional success of late round picks.
Overage players allow GM’s to hedge their bets as well as the more seasons of success a player has, the more likely he is to succeed in the NHL.
With the draft right around the corner our last article (The Big List) will be going up on Thursday!
Be sure to follow us on twitter as we’ll be live tweeting the draft and keeping you updated with every teams 1st round picks and their projections.