The Big List – Ranking the 2015 Draft By Probability of Success

We have run the numbers on all players ranked by CSS and sorted by liklihood of success.

This is that list.

We will be posting 4 other listings as well (NA only, Euro Only, Dmen Only, Forwards Only).

Our purpose  for this exercise is to help identify area’s where our methods are weak and/or lacking. Through discussion with the boys over at www.canucksarmy.com we know that we are pulling similar cohorts to them regarding North American Skaters, but have a ways to go in accurately projecting euros.

No scouting has been taken into account with this list. Some players have been removed completely due to an inability to pull any comparables or a simple lack of data on our end.

But enough chit chat, here’s the list.

The Big List  – All CSS 2015 Draft Eligible Players Ranked by Probability of Success

Cohort Methodology: Within 2” Of Height, Within  +/- 4 NHLE scored in draft season (NHLE’s are normalized over an 82 game season to account for limited games played etc). Overage Player values are determined by cumulative NHLE over all seasons available (+/- 4) and within 2 inches of height.

Download the The Big List – CSV-Complete .CSV file for more detail here

Ranks	CSS	Player Name	POS	HT	WT	1ST+	TOP6+	BOT6	%NHL
1	1	Connor McDavid	C	73	198	100%	100%	0%	100%
2	2	Jack Eichel	C	74	196	100%	100%	0%	100%
3	4	Dylan Strome	C	75	185	67%	100%	0%	100%
4	6	Mitchell Marner	C	71	160	100%	100%	0%	100%
5	34	Mitchell Vande Sompel	D	70	182	100%	100%	0%	100%
6	17	Evgeny Svechnikov	LW	74	199	39%	52%	20%	72%
7	93	Rasmus Andersson	D	72	212	38%	67%	5%	71%
8	10	Timo Meier	RW	73	209	41%	55%	16%	70%
9	13	Kyle Connor	LW	73	177	41%	55%	16%	70%
10	500	Gabe Bast	D	68	190	33%	67%	0%	67%
11	7	Ivan Provorov	D	72	201	33%	59%	7%	67%
12	21	Jeremy Roy	D	72	188	31%	53%	6%	58%
13	32	Vince Dunn	D	72	187	31%	53%	6%	58%
14	91	Thomas Schemitsch	D	75	205	25%	50%	8%	58%
15	3	Noah Hanifin	D	75	203	23%	45%	9%	55%
16	20	Daniel Sprong	RW	72	180	23%	31%	23%	54%
17	33	Anthony Beauvillier	LW	70	173	28%	40%	13%	53%
18	48	Yakov Trenin	C	74	194	21%	30%	23%	52%
19	49	Blake Speers	C	71	181	23%	33%	19%	52%
20	89	Alexandre Carrier	D	71	174	29%	49%	2%	51%
21	11	Mathew Barzal	C	71	175	20%	30%	19%	49%
22	46	Travis Dermott	D	71	197	29%	46%	2%	49%
23	77	Anthony Richard	C	70	163	20%	31%	16%	47%
24	18	Filip Chlapik	C	73	196	16%	25%	22%	47%
25	121	Loik Leveille	D	72	223	25%	42%	4%	46%
26	60	Jeremy Bracco	RW	69	173	19%	31%	15%	46%
27	8	Pavel Zacha	C	75	210	13%	21%	24%	46%
28	14	Travis Konecny	C	70	175	17%	27%	17%	44%
29	27	Brock Boeser	RW	72	191	15%	24%	19%	43%
30	39	John (jack) Roslovic	C	72	182	15%	24%	19%	43%
31	15	Jansen Harkins	C	73	182	13%	20%	23%	43%
32	50	Nikita Korostelev	RW	73	195	13%	20%	23%	43%
33	12	Jakub Zboril	D	73	184	20%	39%	3%	42%
34	30	Dennis Yan	LW	73	184	12%	19%	22%	42%
35	31	Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson	C	73	190	12%	19%	22%	42%
36	23	Nicholas Merkley	RW	70	191	15%	27%	15%	42%
37	75	Gustav Bouramman	D	71	184	22%	39%	2%	41%
38	92	Dmytro Timashov	LW	69	192	13%	22%	19%	41%
39	26	Paul Bittner	LW	76	204	11%	18%	23%	40%
40	22	Noah Juulsen	D	74	174	16%	33%	6%	39%
41	24	Ryan Pilon	D	74	206	16%	33%	6%	39%
42	40	Nicolas Meloche	D	74	204	16%	33%	6%	39%
43	19	Jake DeBrusk	LW	72	174	12%	19%	19%	38%
44	28	Thomas Novak	C	72	179	12%	19%	19%	38%
45	53	Cooper Marody	C	72	173	12%	19%	19%	38%
46	5	Lawson Crouse	LW	76	215	10%	15%	21%	37%
47	51	Erik Foley	LW	72	185	10%	17%	16%	34%
48	109	Dante Salituro	C	68	178	10%	19%	14%	33%
49	13	Sebastian Aho	D	69	165	11%	19%	4%	33%
50	44	Kyle Capobianco	D	73	178	16%	31%	2%	33%
51	159	Vladimir Tkachev	LW	70	144	9%	16%	16%	33%
52	37	Christian Fischer	RW	73	212	9%	15%	17%	32%
53	148	Casey Fitzgerald	D	70	186	21%	29%	3%	32%
54	36	Gabriel Gagne	RW	77	186	7%	9%	22%	31%
55	47	Jordan Greenway	LW	77	222	7%	9%	22%	31%
56	16	Thomas Chabot	D	74	180	14%	26%	5%	31%
57	42	Jeremy Lauzon	D	74	193	14%	26%	5%	31%
58	81	Chris Martenet	D	79	198	17%	22%	9%	30%
59	54	Nathan Noel	C	71	172	6%	15%	15%	30%
60	153	Nikita Pavlychev	C	79	200	0%	0%	30%	30%
61	165	Tim McGauley	C	72	175	6%	12%	18%	30%
62	500	Garrett McFadden	D	70	180	19%	27%	3%	30%
63	25	Brandon Carlo	D	77	196	9%	20%	7%	29%
64	6	Oliver Kylington	D	72	180	16%	25%	3%	29%
65	29	Colin White	C	72	183	8%	14%	13%	28%
66	97	Ethan Bear	D	71	200	16%	26%	1%	27%
67	500	Rihards Bukarts	LW	68	190	3%	12%	12%	26%
68	112	Mitchell Stephens	C	71	188	6%	13%	12%	26%
69	172	Luke Philp	C	69	180	4%	10%	14%	26%
70	500	David Miller	C	68	180	6%	14%	9%	26%
71	57	Graham Knott	LW	75	190	6%	7%	17%	26%
72	198	Brett Seney	LW	69	156	3%	12%	13%	26%
73	181	Ethan Spaxman	D	76	193	7%	18%	6%	26%
74	78	Tyler Soy	C	72	172	7%	13%	11%	25%
75	68	Matthew Spencer	D	74	203	10%	19%	5%	25%
76	29	Kirill Kaprizov	LW	69	185	4%	11%	12%	25%
77	43	Parker Wotherspoon	D	72	171	13%	22%	3%	24%
78	76	Simon Bourque	D	72	184	13%	22%	3%	24%
79	58	Dennis Gilbert	D	74	201	9%	18%	6%	24%
80	187	Jason Bell	D	74	188	9%	18%	6%	24%
81	111	Dryden Hunt	LW	72	199	5%	11%	12%	24%
82	45	Nicolas Roy	C	76	195	4%	6%	17%	24%
83	61	Adam Musil	C	75	202	3%	6%	15%	24%
84	147	Hayden McCool	C	75	200	3%	6%	15%	24%
85	71	Ryan Gropp	LW	74	187	6%	9%	13%	24%
86	105	Brent Gates	C	74	196	6%	9%	13%	24%
87	207	Marcus Crawford	D	71	193	14%	20%	3%	23%
88	1	Mikko Rantanen	RW	76	211	3%	6%	13%	23%
89	176	Adam Brooks	C	70	169	0%	4%	6%	23%
90	52	Andrew Nielsen	D	75	207	7%	16%	5%	22%
91	38	Zachary Senyshyn	RW	73	192	4%	8%	13%	22%
92	64	Jean-Christophe Beaudin	C	73	181	4%	8%	13%	22%
93	500	Joseph Masonius	D	72	190	12%	19%	3%	22%
94	144	Giorgio Estephan	C	72	188	4%	9%	12%	22%
95	129	Jeremiah Addison	LW	72	182	5%	9%	11%	22%
96	141	Alex Barre Boulet	C	69	154	3%	9%	12%	22%
97	41	Guillaume Brisebois	D	74	175	8%	16%	5%	22%
98	56	Brendan Guhle	D	74	184	8%	16%	5%	22%
99	137	Justin Lemcke	D	74	200	8%	16%	5%	22%
100	189	Michael Zipp	D	73	192	8%	16%	4%	22%
101	202	Ryan Zuhlsdorf	D	71	188	13%	18%	3%	22%
102	55	Adam Marsh	LW	72	160	4%	8%	13%	21%
103	59	Glenn Gawdin	C	72	191	4%	8%	13%	21%
104	83	Kameron Kielly	RW	72	180	4%	8%	13%	21%
105	124	Brad Morrison	C	72	154	4%	8%	13%	21%
106	205	Michael Fora	D	74	210	7%	16%	5%	21%
107	118	Pavel Karnaukhov	LW	74	194	4%	6%	11%	21%
108	139	Trent Fox	C	74	190	4%	6%	11%	21%
109	146	Tate Olson	D	74	174	7%	15%	4%	21%
110	74	Pius Suter	C	71	165	3%	8%	11%	20%
111	500	Bradley Lalonde	D	72	193	11%	17%	3%	20%
112	154	Cameron Askew	C	74	203	3%	5%	13%	20%
113	96	Matt Luff	RW	74	179	3%	5%	12%	20%
114	120	Brett McKenzie	C	74	190	3%	5%	12%	20%
115	66	Brendan Warren	LW	72	191	3%	8%	11%	20%
116	65	Keegan Kolesar	RW	73	217	4%	8%	10%	20%
117	108	Adam Gaudette	C	73	170	4%	8%	10%	20%
118	90	Grant Gabriele	D	73	167	7%	14%	4%	20%
119	67	Anthony Cirelli	C	72	160	4%	8%	10%	19%
120	98	Alexandre Fortin	C	72	173	4%	8%	10%	19%
121	125	Mathieu Joseph	RW	73	166	3%	6%	12%	19%
122	168	Adam Laishram	RW	68	158	3%	10%	10%	19%
123	35	Austin Wagner	LW	73	178	4%	7%	11%	19%
124	132	Matthew Freytag	LW	73	195	4%	7%	11%	19%
125	72	Connor Hobbs	D	72	187	10%	16%	3%	19%
126	163	Kevin Davis	D	72	183	10%	16%	3%	19%
127	160	Mark Simpson	C	77	189	0%	3%	11%	19%
128	70	Samuel Dove-Mcfalls	LW	74	207	3%	5%	11%	19%
129	157	Philippe Myers	D	77	196	3%	9%	8%	19%
130	130	Alexandre Alain	C	72	173	2%	6%	10%	19%
131	133	Collin Peters	C	72	166	2%	6%	10%	19%
132	200	Adam Berg	LW	72	182	3%	7%	10%	19%
133	175	Tyler Macarthur	D	76	177	4%	9%	8%	19%
134	166	Alexandre Goulet	C	72	195	3%	8%	10%	19%
135	107	Troy Terry	RW/C	70	160	4%	12%	7%	19%
136	115	Caleb Jones	D	72	194	9%	15%	3%	19%
137	128	Colton White	D	72	182	9%	15%	3%	19%
138	143	Keoni Texeira	D	72	208	9%	15%	3%	19%
139	82	Chaz Reddekopp	D	75	219	5%	11%	6%	19%
140	103	Sergey Zborovskiy	D	75	198	5%	11%	6%	19%
141	3	Jacob Larsson	D	74	191	6%	13%	4%	18%
142	131	Marcus Vela	C	72	204	3%	7%	10%	18%
143	140	Brandon Lindberg	C	72	205	3%	7%	10%	18%
144	188	Carmine Buono	D	73	190	6%	12%	5%	18%
145	151	Jiri Fronk	RW	74	191	3%	7%	17%	18%
146	88	Joseph Cecconi	D	74	209	5%	11%	5%	18%
147	184	Kade Jensen	D	74	191	5%	11%	5%	18%
148	14	Roope Hintz	LW	74	185	3%	6%	9%	18%
149	123	Chase Pearson	C	74	189	3%	6%	9%	18%
150	185	Mike Davies	LW	74	191	3%	6%	9%	18%
151	126	Matthew Bradley	C	71	187	3%	8%	9%	18%
152	177	Cameron Hebig	C	71	178	3%	8%	9%	18%
153	500	Zachary Zborosky	RW	71	175	3%	8%	9%	18%
154	169	Grayson Pawlenchuk	LW	72	183	2%	5%	9%	18%
155	73	Jesse Gabrielle	LW	71	205	3%	8%	9%	18%
156	134	Deven Sideroff	RW	71	171	3%	8%	9%	18%
157	170	Spencer Smallman	RW	72	184	2%	7%	10%	18%
158	119	Samuel Laberge	LW	74	206	3%	5%	9%	18%
159	127	Matteo Gennaro	C	74	187	3%	5%	9%	18%
160	101	Austin Strand	D	75	194	5%	9%	7%	18%
161	193	Antoine Marcoux	C	73	170	3%	6%	9%	17%
162	206	Jordan Fournier	RW	73	181	3%	6%	9%	17%
163	500	Ty Comrie	C	72	169	3%	7%	8%	17%
164	150	Artem Artemov	LW	70	200	4%	10%	6%	17%
165	194	Ethan Szypula	C	70	168	4%	10%	6%	17%
166	178	Gustaf Franzen	C	71	173	3%	7%	9%	17%
167	500	Jared Bethune	C	72	174	2%	5%	8%	17%
168	500	Jacob Henderson	RW	74	203	3%	5%	7%	17%
169	142	Olivier Galipeau	D	72	202	8%	13%	3%	16%
170	161	Evan Weinger	RW	71	184	2%	5%	9%	16%
171	99	Cameron Lizotte	D	73	193	4%	9%	6%	16%
172	52	Vyacheslav Leschenko	RW	71	167	2%	6%	10%	16%
173	116	Devante Stephens	D	73	171	4%	10%	5%	16%
174	179	Gabriel Fontaine	C	73	179	2%	5%	7%	16%
175	5	Michael Spacek	RW	71	187	2%	6%	9%	16%
176	18	Sebastian Aho	RW	71	172	2%	6%	9%	16%
177	500	Alex Overhardt	C	71	181	2%	3%	9%	16%
178	500	Hannes Bjorninen	RW	73	187	5%	8%	6%	16%
179	9	Filip Ahl	LW	75	211	3%	6%	6%	16%
180	23	Lukas Jasek	RW	71	165	2%	4%	9%	16%
181	55	Henrik Tornqvist	RW	73	180	5%	7%	6%	16%
182	41	Andrei Kuzmenko	LW	71	185	1%	7%	9%	15%
183	500	Christian Evers	D	74	206	3%	8%	5%	15%
184	102	Brandon Crawley	D	72	198	7%	11%	4%	15%
185	500	Wyatt Kalynuk	D	72	165	7%	11%	4%	15%
186	500	Matthew Murphy	D	74	208	3%	9%	6%	15%
187	104	Roy Radke	RW	74	203	2%	5%	6%	15%
188	95	David Henley	D	76	203	2%	6%	7%	15%
189	174	Joe Gatenby	D	72	176	7%	11%	4%	15%
190	33	Jonne Tammela	RW	70	180	2%	2%	10%	14%
191	31	Aleksi Saarela	C	70	198	2%	5%	7%	14%
192	145	Stephen Desrocher	D	76	198	4%	7%	6%	14%
193	69	ANTHONY-JOHN (AJ) Greer	LW	74	204	3%	5%	5%	14%
194	122	Bailey Webster	D	75	210	2%	6%	6%	13%
195	12	Jonas Siegenthaler	D	74	220	1%	6%	6%	13%
196	47	Lucas Carlsson	D	72	180	6%	9%	4%	13%
197	117	Nicholas Boka	D	72	197	6%	9%	4%	13%
198	21	Kevin Stenlund	C	75	205	3%	5%	5%	13%
199	500	Eetu Sopanen	D	77	222	4%	6%	7%	13%
200	192	Rhett Gardner		74	200	1%	4%	6%	13%
201	60	Alexander Sharov	LW	74	191	0%	4%	6%	13%
202	156	Connor Moynihan	LW	76	211	3%	5%	4%	12%
203	197	Evan Polei	LW	74	216	0%	3%	6%	11%
204	210	Riley Bruce	D	78	205	4%	4%	4%	11%
205	20	Denis Malgin	C	68	163	0%	4%	7%	11%
206	69	Adam Brodecki	LW	71	167	1%	4%	6%	11%
207	30	Dmitri Yudin	D	74	185	2%	5%	6%	11%
208	46	Petter Hansson	D	73	187	5%	8%	3%	11%
209	90	Mikael Johansson	RW	75	211	4%	6%	4%	11%
210	56	Sami Niku	D	72	176	3%	6%	4%	11%
211	500	Jan Scotka	D	74	201	3%	6%	5%	10%
212	500	Tyler Busch	C	75	180	0%	2%	6%	10%
213	45	Yegor Korshkov	RW	75	170	0%	2%	6%	10%
214	180	Jack Van Boekel	D	79	200	3%	3%	7%	10%
215	195	Thomas Aldworth	RW	71	190	1%	2%	4%	10%
216	40	Christian Jaros	D	75	201	3%	6%	4%	10%
217	203	James Vermeulen	D	74	180	4%	6%	3%	10%
218	136	Brien Diffley	D	73	176	2%	5%	5%	9%
219	49	Ziyat Paigin	D	78	209	0%	1%	8%	9%
220	167	Matt Schmalz	RW	78	209	0%	3%	3%	8%
221	209	Vincent Desharnais	D	78	207	0%	0%	5%	7%
222	201	Jarett Meyer	D	80	246	0%	0%	0%	0%
223	199	Liam Finlay	RW	66	132	0%	0%	0%	0%
224	500	Petrus Palmu	LW	66	169	0%	0%	0%	0%