The Projection Project » big list http://theprojectionproject.com/blog Mon, 13 Jul 2015 16:58:52 +0000 en-US hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.2 The Big List – Ranking the 2015 Draft By Probability of Success http://theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/06/24/the-big-list-ranking-the-2015-draft-by-probability-of-success/ http://theprojectionproject.com/blog/2015/06/24/the-big-list-ranking-the-2015-draft-by-probability-of-success/#comments Wed, 24 Jun 2015 16:40:18 +0000 http://theprojectionproject.com/blog/?p=76 Read More »]]>


We have run the numbers on all players ranked by CSS and sorted by liklihood of success.

This is that list.

We will be posting 4 other listings as well (NA only, Euro Only, Dmen Only, Forwards Only).

Our purpose  for this exercise is to help identify area’s where our methods are weak and/or lacking. Through discussion with the boys over at www.canucksarmy.com we know that we are pulling similar cohorts to them regarding North American Skaters, but have a ways to go in accurately projecting euros.

No scouting has been taken into account with this list. Some players have been removed completely due to an inability to pull any comparables or a simple lack of data on our end.

But enough chit chat, here’s the list.

The Big List  – All CSS 2015 Draft Eligible Players Ranked by Probability of Success

Cohort Methodology: Within 2” Of Height, Within  +/- 4 NHLE scored in draft season (NHLE’s are normalized over an 82 game season to account for limited games played etc). Overage Player values are determined by cumulative NHLE over all seasons available (+/- 4) and within 2 inches of height.

Download the The Big List – CSV-Complete .CSV file for more detail here

Ranks CSS Player Name POS HT WT 1ST+ TOP6+ BOT6 %NHL
1 1 Connor McDavid C 73 198 100% 100% 0% 100%
2 2 Jack Eichel C 74 196 100% 100% 0% 100%
3 4 Dylan Strome C 75 185 67% 100% 0% 100%
4 6 Mitchell Marner C 71 160 100% 100% 0% 100%
5 34 Mitchell Vande Sompel D 70 182 100% 100% 0% 100%
6 17 Evgeny Svechnikov LW 74 199 39% 52% 20% 72%
7 93 Rasmus Andersson D 72 212 38% 67% 5% 71%
8 10 Timo Meier RW 73 209 41% 55% 16% 70%
9 13 Kyle Connor LW 73 177 41% 55% 16% 70%
10 500 Gabe Bast D 68 190 33% 67% 0% 67%
11 7 Ivan Provorov D 72 201 33% 59% 7% 67%
12 21 Jeremy Roy D 72 188 31% 53% 6% 58%
13 32 Vince Dunn D 72 187 31% 53% 6% 58%
14 91 Thomas Schemitsch D 75 205 25% 50% 8% 58%
15 3 Noah Hanifin D 75 203 23% 45% 9% 55%
16 20 Daniel Sprong RW 72 180 23% 31% 23% 54%
17 33 Anthony Beauvillier LW 70 173 28% 40% 13% 53%
18 48 Yakov Trenin C 74 194 21% 30% 23% 52%
19 49 Blake Speers C 71 181 23% 33% 19% 52%
20 89 Alexandre Carrier D 71 174 29% 49% 2% 51%
21 11 Mathew Barzal C 71 175 20% 30% 19% 49%
22 46 Travis Dermott D 71 197 29% 46% 2% 49%
23 77 Anthony Richard C 70 163 20% 31% 16% 47%
24 18 Filip Chlapik C 73 196 16% 25% 22% 47%
25 121 Loik Leveille D 72 223 25% 42% 4% 46%
26 60 Jeremy Bracco RW 69 173 19% 31% 15% 46%
27 8 Pavel Zacha C 75 210 13% 21% 24% 46%
28 14 Travis Konecny C 70 175 17% 27% 17% 44%
29 27 Brock Boeser RW 72 191 15% 24% 19% 43%
30 39 John (jack) Roslovic C 72 182 15% 24% 19% 43%
31 15 Jansen Harkins C 73 182 13% 20% 23% 43%
32 50 Nikita Korostelev RW 73 195 13% 20% 23% 43%
33 12 Jakub Zboril D 73 184 20% 39% 3% 42%
34 30 Dennis Yan LW 73 184 12% 19% 22% 42%
35 31 Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson C 73 190 12% 19% 22% 42%
36 23 Nicholas Merkley RW 70 191 15% 27% 15% 42%
37 75 Gustav Bouramman D 71 184 22% 39% 2% 41%
38 92 Dmytro Timashov LW 69 192 13% 22% 19% 41%
39 26 Paul Bittner LW 76 204 11% 18% 23% 40%
40 22 Noah Juulsen D 74 174 16% 33% 6% 39%
41 24 Ryan Pilon D 74 206 16% 33% 6% 39%
42 40 Nicolas Meloche D 74 204 16% 33% 6% 39%
43 19 Jake DeBrusk LW 72 174 12% 19% 19% 38%
44 28 Thomas Novak C 72 179 12% 19% 19% 38%
45 53 Cooper Marody C 72 173 12% 19% 19% 38%
46 5 Lawson Crouse LW 76 215 10% 15% 21% 37%
47 51 Erik Foley LW 72 185 10% 17% 16% 34%
48 109 Dante Salituro C 68 178 10% 19% 14% 33%
49 13 Sebastian Aho D 69 165 11% 19% 4% 33%
50 44 Kyle Capobianco D 73 178 16% 31% 2% 33%
51 159 Vladimir Tkachev LW 70 144 9% 16% 16% 33%
52 37 Christian Fischer RW 73 212 9% 15% 17% 32%
53 148 Casey Fitzgerald D 70 186 21% 29% 3% 32%
54 36 Gabriel Gagne RW 77 186 7% 9% 22% 31%
55 47 Jordan Greenway LW 77 222 7% 9% 22% 31%
56 16 Thomas Chabot D 74 180 14% 26% 5% 31%
57 42 Jeremy Lauzon D 74 193 14% 26% 5% 31%
58 81 Chris Martenet D 79 198 17% 22% 9% 30%
59 54 Nathan Noel C 71 172 6% 15% 15% 30%
60 153 Nikita Pavlychev C 79 200 0% 0% 30% 30%
61 165 Tim McGauley C 72 175 6% 12% 18% 30%
62 500 Garrett McFadden D 70 180 19% 27% 3% 30%
63 25 Brandon Carlo D 77 196 9% 20% 7% 29%
64 6 Oliver Kylington D 72 180 16% 25% 3% 29%
65 29 Colin White C 72 183 8% 14% 13% 28%
66 97 Ethan Bear D 71 200 16% 26% 1% 27%
67 500 Rihards Bukarts LW 68 190 3% 12% 12% 26%
68 112 Mitchell Stephens C 71 188 6% 13% 12% 26%
69 172 Luke Philp C 69 180 4% 10% 14% 26%
70 500 David Miller C 68 180 6% 14% 9% 26%
71 57 Graham Knott LW 75 190 6% 7% 17% 26%
72 198 Brett Seney LW 69 156 3% 12% 13% 26%
73 181 Ethan Spaxman D 76 193 7% 18% 6% 26%
74 78 Tyler Soy C 72 172 7% 13% 11% 25%
75 68 Matthew Spencer D 74 203 10% 19% 5% 25%
76 29 Kirill Kaprizov LW 69 185 4% 11% 12% 25%
77 43 Parker Wotherspoon D 72 171 13% 22% 3% 24%
78 76 Simon Bourque D 72 184 13% 22% 3% 24%
79 58 Dennis Gilbert D 74 201 9% 18% 6% 24%
80 187 Jason Bell D 74 188 9% 18% 6% 24%
81 111 Dryden Hunt LW 72 199 5% 11% 12% 24%
82 45 Nicolas Roy C 76 195 4% 6% 17% 24%
83 61 Adam Musil C 75 202 3% 6% 15% 24%
84 147 Hayden McCool C 75 200 3% 6% 15% 24%
85 71 Ryan Gropp LW 74 187 6% 9% 13% 24%
86 105 Brent Gates C 74 196 6% 9% 13% 24%
87 207 Marcus Crawford D 71 193 14% 20% 3% 23%
88 1 Mikko Rantanen RW 76 211 3% 6% 13% 23%
89 176 Adam Brooks C 70 169 0% 4% 6% 23%
90 52 Andrew Nielsen D 75 207 7% 16% 5% 22%
91 38 Zachary Senyshyn RW 73 192 4% 8% 13% 22%
92 64 Jean-Christophe Beaudin C 73 181 4% 8% 13% 22%
93 500 Joseph Masonius D 72 190 12% 19% 3% 22%
94 144 Giorgio Estephan C 72 188 4% 9% 12% 22%
95 129 Jeremiah Addison LW 72 182 5% 9% 11% 22%
96 141 Alex Barre Boulet C 69 154 3% 9% 12% 22%
97 41 Guillaume Brisebois D 74 175 8% 16% 5% 22%
98 56 Brendan Guhle D 74 184 8% 16% 5% 22%
99 137 Justin Lemcke D 74 200 8% 16% 5% 22%
100 189 Michael Zipp D 73 192 8% 16% 4% 22%
101 202 Ryan Zuhlsdorf D 71 188 13% 18% 3% 22%
102 55 Adam Marsh LW 72 160 4% 8% 13% 21%
103 59 Glenn Gawdin C 72 191 4% 8% 13% 21%
104 83 Kameron Kielly RW 72 180 4% 8% 13% 21%
105 124 Brad Morrison C 72 154 4% 8% 13% 21%
106 205 Michael Fora D 74 210 7% 16% 5% 21%
107 118 Pavel Karnaukhov LW 74 194 4% 6% 11% 21%
108 139 Trent Fox C 74 190 4% 6% 11% 21%
109 146 Tate Olson D 74 174 7% 15% 4% 21%
110 74 Pius Suter C 71 165 3% 8% 11% 20%
111 500 Bradley Lalonde D 72 193 11% 17% 3% 20%
112 154 Cameron Askew C 74 203 3% 5% 13% 20%
113 96 Matt Luff RW 74 179 3% 5% 12% 20%
114 120 Brett McKenzie C 74 190 3% 5% 12% 20%
115 66 Brendan Warren LW 72 191 3% 8% 11% 20%
116 65 Keegan Kolesar RW 73 217 4% 8% 10% 20%
117 108 Adam Gaudette C 73 170 4% 8% 10% 20%
118 90 Grant Gabriele D 73 167 7% 14% 4% 20%
119 67 Anthony Cirelli C 72 160 4% 8% 10% 19%
120 98 Alexandre Fortin C 72 173 4% 8% 10% 19%
121 125 Mathieu Joseph RW 73 166 3% 6% 12% 19%
122 168 Adam Laishram RW 68 158 3% 10% 10% 19%
123 35 Austin Wagner LW 73 178 4% 7% 11% 19%
124 132 Matthew Freytag LW 73 195 4% 7% 11% 19%
125 72 Connor Hobbs D 72 187 10% 16% 3% 19%
126 163 Kevin Davis D 72 183 10% 16% 3% 19%
127 160 Mark Simpson C 77 189 0% 3% 11% 19%
128 70 Samuel Dove-Mcfalls LW 74 207 3% 5% 11% 19%
129 157 Philippe Myers D 77 196 3% 9% 8% 19%
130 130 Alexandre Alain C 72 173 2% 6% 10% 19%
131 133 Collin Peters C 72 166 2% 6% 10% 19%
132 200 Adam Berg LW 72 182 3% 7% 10% 19%
133 175 Tyler Macarthur D 76 177 4% 9% 8% 19%
134 166 Alexandre Goulet C 72 195 3% 8% 10% 19%
135 107 Troy Terry RW/C 70 160 4% 12% 7% 19%
136 115 Caleb Jones D 72 194 9% 15% 3% 19%
137 128 Colton White D 72 182 9% 15% 3% 19%
138 143 Keoni Texeira D 72 208 9% 15% 3% 19%
139 82 Chaz Reddekopp D 75 219 5% 11% 6% 19%
140 103 Sergey Zborovskiy D 75 198 5% 11% 6% 19%
141 3 Jacob Larsson D 74 191 6% 13% 4% 18%
142 131 Marcus Vela C 72 204 3% 7% 10% 18%
143 140 Brandon Lindberg C 72 205 3% 7% 10% 18%
144 188 Carmine Buono D 73 190 6% 12% 5% 18%
145 151 Jiri Fronk RW 74 191 3% 7% 17% 18%
146 88 Joseph Cecconi D 74 209 5% 11% 5% 18%
147 184 Kade Jensen D 74 191 5% 11% 5% 18%
148 14 Roope Hintz LW 74 185 3% 6% 9% 18%
149 123 Chase Pearson C 74 189 3% 6% 9% 18%
150 185 Mike Davies LW 74 191 3% 6% 9% 18%
151 126 Matthew Bradley C 71 187 3% 8% 9% 18%
152 177 Cameron Hebig C 71 178 3% 8% 9% 18%
153 500 Zachary Zborosky RW 71 175 3% 8% 9% 18%
154 169 Grayson Pawlenchuk LW 72 183 2% 5% 9% 18%
155 73 Jesse Gabrielle LW 71 205 3% 8% 9% 18%
156 134 Deven Sideroff RW 71 171 3% 8% 9% 18%
157 170 Spencer Smallman RW 72 184 2% 7% 10% 18%
158 119 Samuel Laberge LW 74 206 3% 5% 9% 18%
159 127 Matteo Gennaro C 74 187 3% 5% 9% 18%
160 101 Austin Strand D 75 194 5% 9% 7% 18%
161 193 Antoine Marcoux C 73 170 3% 6% 9% 17%
162 206 Jordan Fournier RW 73 181 3% 6% 9% 17%
163 500 Ty Comrie C 72 169 3% 7% 8% 17%
164 150 Artem Artemov LW 70 200 4% 10% 6% 17%
165 194 Ethan Szypula C 70 168 4% 10% 6% 17%
166 178 Gustaf Franzen C 71 173 3% 7% 9% 17%
167 500 Jared Bethune C 72 174 2% 5% 8% 17%
168 500 Jacob Henderson RW 74 203 3% 5% 7% 17%
169 142 Olivier Galipeau D 72 202 8% 13% 3% 16%
170 161 Evan Weinger RW 71 184 2% 5% 9% 16%
171 99 Cameron Lizotte D 73 193 4% 9% 6% 16%
172 52 Vyacheslav Leschenko RW 71 167 2% 6% 10% 16%
173 116 Devante Stephens D 73 171 4% 10% 5% 16%
174 179 Gabriel Fontaine C 73 179 2% 5% 7% 16%
175 5 Michael Spacek RW 71 187 2% 6% 9% 16%
176 18 Sebastian Aho RW 71 172 2% 6% 9% 16%
177 500 Alex Overhardt C 71 181 2% 3% 9% 16%
178 500 Hannes Bjorninen RW 73 187 5% 8% 6% 16%
179 9 Filip Ahl LW 75 211 3% 6% 6% 16%
180 23 Lukas Jasek RW 71 165 2% 4% 9% 16%
181 55 Henrik Tornqvist RW 73 180 5% 7% 6% 16%
182 41 Andrei Kuzmenko LW 71 185 1% 7% 9% 15%
183 500 Christian Evers D 74 206 3% 8% 5% 15%
184 102 Brandon Crawley D 72 198 7% 11% 4% 15%
185 500 Wyatt Kalynuk D 72 165 7% 11% 4% 15%
186 500 Matthew Murphy D 74 208 3% 9% 6% 15%
187 104 Roy Radke RW 74 203 2% 5% 6% 15%
188 95 David Henley D 76 203 2% 6% 7% 15%
189 174 Joe Gatenby D 72 176 7% 11% 4% 15%
190 33 Jonne Tammela RW 70 180 2% 2% 10% 14%
191 31 Aleksi Saarela C 70 198 2% 5% 7% 14%
192 145 Stephen Desrocher D 76 198 4% 7% 6% 14%
193 69 ANTHONY-JOHN (AJ) Greer LW 74 204 3% 5% 5% 14%
194 122 Bailey Webster D 75 210 2% 6% 6% 13%
195 12 Jonas Siegenthaler D 74 220 1% 6% 6% 13%
196 47 Lucas Carlsson D 72 180 6% 9% 4% 13%
197 117 Nicholas Boka D 72 197 6% 9% 4% 13%
198 21 Kevin Stenlund C 75 205 3% 5% 5% 13%
199 500 Eetu Sopanen D 77 222 4% 6% 7% 13%
200 192 Rhett Gardner 74 200 1% 4% 6% 13%
201 60 Alexander Sharov LW 74 191 0% 4% 6% 13%
202 156 Connor Moynihan LW 76 211 3% 5% 4% 12%
203 197 Evan Polei LW 74 216 0% 3% 6% 11%
204 210 Riley Bruce D 78 205 4% 4% 4% 11%
205 20 Denis Malgin C 68 163 0% 4% 7% 11%
206 69 Adam Brodecki LW 71 167 1% 4% 6% 11%
207 30 Dmitri Yudin D 74 185 2% 5% 6% 11%
208 46 Petter Hansson D 73 187 5% 8% 3% 11%
209 90 Mikael Johansson RW 75 211 4% 6% 4% 11%
210 56 Sami Niku D 72 176 3% 6% 4% 11%
211 500 Jan Scotka D 74 201 3% 6% 5% 10%
212 500 Tyler Busch C 75 180 0% 2% 6% 10%
213 45 Yegor Korshkov RW 75 170 0% 2% 6% 10%
214 180 Jack Van Boekel D 79 200 3% 3% 7% 10%
215 195 Thomas Aldworth RW 71 190 1% 2% 4% 10%
216 40 Christian Jaros D 75 201 3% 6% 4% 10%
217 203 James Vermeulen D 74 180 4% 6% 3% 10%
218 136 Brien Diffley D 73 176 2% 5% 5% 9%
219 49 Ziyat Paigin D 78 209 0% 1% 8% 9%
220 167 Matt Schmalz RW 78 209 0% 3% 3% 8%
221 209 Vincent Desharnais D 78 207 0% 0% 5% 7%
222 201 Jarett Meyer D 80 246 0% 0% 0% 0%
223 199 Liam Finlay RW 66 132 0% 0% 0% 0%
224 500 Petrus Palmu LW 66 169 0% 0% 0% 0%

 

 

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